- Hans Weber
- December 18, 2024
CEE MARKETS-Forint stays strong in face of technical recession, CEZ jumps
PRAGUE, Feb 14 (Reuters) – The forint gained on Tuesday, sticking close to a more than eight-month high as it shook off data showing Hungary’s economy slipped into a technical recession, with markets strong before U.S. inflation data to be released later in the day.
Central Europe’s currencies have been caught up in U.S. dollar moves in recent trading, and on Tuesday a weaker dollar boosted appetite in the European Union’s emerging east.
It comes even as data on Tuesday around the region showed the toll high inflation was having in the region, with Hungary following the Czech Republic into a technical recession in the fourth quarter and Poland falling quickly on a quarter-on-quarter basis.
The forint EURHUF= had gained 0.2% to 382.25 to the euro by 1035 GMT, keeping up a hot streak seen this year as it has risen already 4.5%, supported by its higher yield compared to peers in the region.
The forint has been shored up since last October as the central bank has lifted its key policy rate to 13% and a one-day deposit rate at 18%.
Data from the central bank on Tuesday showed Hungary’s current account deficit narrowed to 694 million euros in December from 1.699 billion euros in November, giving some currency relief.
In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= edged up 0.1% with data showing the economy falling on a quarterly basis and year-on-year growth slowing to 2.0% in the fourth quarter.
Romania’s leu EURRON= was steady after economic growth was stronger than expected in the fourth quarter.
Other economic data from the region showed economies holding up still, even as high inflation that is sapping consumer demand should slow growth sharply this year, analysts say.
“The falls in GDP in Central and Eastern Europe shown in the Q4 figures probably mark the worst of the regional downturn, but we still think that activity will (at best) only stagnate over the first half of this year,” Capital Economics said.
On stock markets, bourses mostly followed global peers up.
Czech majority state-owned utility CEZ CEZP.PR jumped a second straight day and hit a fresh more than five-month high amid ongoing speculation into a possible restructuring. Its gains pushed the Prague index .PX to a nearly one-year high.
CEE MARKETS
SNAPSHOT
AT 1135 CET
CURRENCIES
Latest
Previous
Daily
Change
bid
close
change
in 2023
EURCZK=
Czech crown
EURCZK=
23.7650
23.7440
-0.09%
+1.65%
EURHUF=
Hungary forint
EURHUF=
382.2500
383.1500
+0.24%
+4.50%
EURPLN=
Polish zloty
EURPLN=
4.7840
4.7900
+0.13%
-1.97%
EURRON=
Romanian leu
EURRON=
4.9005
4.9018
+0.03%
+0.86%
EURHRK=
Croatian kuna
EURHRK=
7.5330
7.5365
+0.05%
+0.05%
EURRSD=
Serbian dinar
EURRSD=
117.2000
117.3000
+0.09%
+0.09%
Note: daily change
calculated from
1800 CET
Latest
Previous
Daily
Change
close
change
in 2023
.PX
Prague
.PX
1411.59
1398.1000
+0.96%
+17.46%
.BUX
Budapest
.BUX
46583.56
46233.47
+0.76%
+6.37%
.WIG20
Warsaw
.WIG20
1861.07
1853.29
+0.42%
+3.85%
.BETI
Bucharest
.BETI
12312.61
12336.14
-0.19%
+5.57%
.SBITOP
Ljubljana
.SBITOP
1184.96
1181.23
+0.32%
+12.98%
.CRBEX
Zagreb
.CRBEX
2151.68
2134.62
+0.80%
+718.85%
.BELEX15
Belgrade
.BELEX15
872.23
872.23
+0.00%
+5.77%
.SOFIX
Sofia
.SOFIX
608.66
612.35
-0.60%
+1.19%
Yield
Yield
Spread
Daily
(bid)
change
vs Bund
change in
Czech Republic
spread
CZ2YT=RR
2-year
CZ2YT=RR
5.6900
-0.1330
+291bps
-13bps
CZ5YT=RR
5-year
CZ5YT=RR
4.9330
-0.0220
+252bps
-1bps
CZ10YT=RR
10-year
CZ10YT=RR
4.6010
-0.0140
+225bps
+1bps
Poland
PL2YT=RR
2-year
PL2YT=RR
6.1880
-0.1270
+341bps
-12bps
PL5YT=RR
5-year
PL5YT=RR
6.1190
-0.0330
+371bps
-2bps
PL10YT=RR
10-year
PL10YT=RR
6.1230
-0.0380
+377bps
-2bps
FORWARD
3×6
6×9
9×12
3M interbank
Czech Rep
CZKFRAPRIBOR=
7.19
7.01
6.45
7.20
Hungary
HUFFRABUBOR=
15.08
13.77
12.29
16.13
Poland
PLNFRAWIBOR=
7.00
6.89
6.54
6.92
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices
Source
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