In a recent poll conducted by the Median agency in September and released today, the opposition party ANO is projected to win a general election if it were held in the Czech Republic in September. The poll indicates that ANO, led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babis, would secure 34% of the vote, marking a 1-percentage point increase compared to a July poll. ANO’s strong showing cements its position as a formidable political force in the country.

The poll further reveals that the government’s Civic Democrats (ODS) and the Pirates are trailing behind with 13% and 11.5% support, respectively. Both ODS, under the leadership of Prime Minister Petr Fiala, and the Pirates have seen a decline in their voter base since the previous poll. These results indicate a significant shift in political dynamics within the country.

Other notable parties that would cross the 5% threshold required to enter the lower house of the Czech parliament include the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) at 9.5%, the junior government Mayors and Independents (STAN) at 6.5%, and TOP 09 at 5.5%. The current governing coalition, consisting of ODS, KDU-CSL, TOP 09, Pirates, and STAN, collectively has the support of 40.5% of voters, which would translate into 91 seats in the 200-seat lower house.

However, the poll also highlights a challenge for the government coalition. Parties that narrowly hover around the 5% threshold, such as KDU-CSL, the Communists, and the Social Democrats (SOCDEM), are at risk of not entering the Chamber of Deputies due to statistical margin of error, making the electoral landscape even more unpredictable.

One intriguing aspect of the poll is the potential emergence of a new political entity, as voters from government coalition parties like Spolu (ODS, KDU-CSL, TOP 09) and the PirSTAN coalition (Pirates and STAN) are not firmly committed to voting for opposition parties. The pollsters suggest that this dynamic creates an opening for a new political force to gain traction in the Czech political arena.

The poll also delves into voter turnout, revealing that 55.5% of respondents would definitely participate in elections, with another 10.5% considering it. However, 27% would definitely not vote, and 7% are unlikely to do so. The decrease in willingness to participate compared to the previous poll could potentially favor parties with a stable electoral core.

ANO boasts the strongest core of voters, with 26.5% committed to voting for the party, surpassing other parties’ potentials. ANO’s support is highest among people aged over 55, with a majority of its supporters being women. In contrast, ODS garners more support from men and is particularly favored by university graduates. The Pirate party has its highest support among young people aged 18 to 24, followed by those aged 25-34.

These poll results offer valuable insights into the evolving political landscape in the Czech Republic, setting the stage for a potentially competitive general election. As election day draws closer, political parties will likely intensify their campaigns and outreach efforts to secure their positions in the lower house of parliament.

Article by Prague Forum