Analysts project an increase in electricity prices for most consumers in the coming year, with trends expected to be highly individual. While many households may experience slight increases, businesses, especially large consumers, could face more significant impacts if market electricity prices continue to shift. The anticipated rise in electricity prices is influenced by various factors, including changes in the regulated portion of energy prices.

The regulated component of energy prices is set to see significant increases in the next year. Electricity, where the regulated part constitutes about 39% of the final cost, is expected to rise by 65.7% annually. Similarly, for natural gas, where the regulated part represents 20%, an increase of 38.8% is anticipated. However, the Energy Regulatory Office (ERÚ) suggests that the elevated regulated component may be balanced by a decline in trade prices from suppliers.

Michal Macenauer, CEO of consulting firm EGÚ Brno, highlights the differentiated evolution of electricity costs, primarily contingent on the starting price of power electricity for consumers in 2023. Small consumers may expect a slight increase of a few percentage points. However, the situation becomes more intricate for large consumers due to the uncertain trajectory of power electricity prices for extensive consumption.

The impact of increasing regulated prices will vary for each consumer. Radim Dohnal, analyst at Capitalinked, underscores that the extent of the impact depends on factors such as the consumer’s historical power electricity price, distribution rate, consumption levels, and geographical location within a distribution area.

Jiří Tyleček, an analyst at XTB, draws attention to the potential misconception among consumers who, due to state subsidies, may have believed that the increase in energy prices during the energy crisis was negligible. He emphasizes that consumers with previously fixed energy prices at pre-crisis levels will now feel the upward price jump more distinctly. The complex dynamics of the energy market and regulatory changes contribute to the nuanced and varied outlook for electricity prices in the coming year.