The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has persisted for over a year and a half, is encountering a shift in the format of Western military support. To continue receiving critical military aid, including ammunition, weaponry, tanks, and armored vehicles, Ukraine must meet specific conditions outlined by its Western allies. These conditions revolve around implementing state reforms and anti-corruption measures.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive, launched at the beginning of June, has yet to achieve the anticipated success in the eastern region. Ukraine faces a limited window of opportunity before the arrival of autumn rains, rendering the terrain muddy and challenging for heavy equipment, which could favor fortified Russian forces adopting a defensive strategy.

The United States, Ukraine’s primary ally, has announced that further military assistance will be contingent on Ukraine meeting a set of prerequisites. The U.S. has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine throughout the conflict, providing substantial aid totaling $43.7 billion.

This announcement was delivered directly from the White House and conveyed a working list of reforms through its national security advisor to the Donor Coordination Platform, responsible for coordinating military aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and President Volodymyr Zelensky also received the document.

The document outlines a prioritized sequence of reforms that Ukraine must undertake within different timeframes, ranging from 3, 6, 12, to 18 months. These reforms primarily target the functioning of supervisory boards for state-owned enterprises, prosecutor’s offices, and the judiciary, along with anti-corruption measures. Within one year, Ukraine is expected to implement changes within the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and the police.

However, the feasibility of Ukraine meeting these specified reforms within the designated timelines remains uncertain. Ukraine has also received a similar list of demands from the European Union, which has set seven conditions to be met by the end of October to initiate EU accession talks. These conditions are related to reducing the influence of oligarchs and eliminating corruption breeding grounds.

As of now, Ukraine has only fulfilled two of the seven points. Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration, Olha Stefanishina, has emphasized that it would take several years to fulfill the entire list of requirements set by the EU. These conditions add complexity to Ukraine’s efforts to secure continued Western military support in its ongoing struggle.

Article by Prague Forum