- Hans Weber
- September 29, 2023
President Survey Round 1: Babiš first, followed by Pavel and Nerudová
If the first round of the presidential election were held now, the head of the ANO movement, Andrej Babiš, would win with 31.7%. With 23.8% of the vote, Petr Pavel would advance to the second round. This is according to a new poll by Ipsos. Danuše Nerudová also came out on top in the survey.
Both Andrej Babiš and Petr Pavel have the potential to win around 39% of the vote in the first round. Potential expresses the percentage that a given candidate would get if all those currently at least considering voting for them voted for them.
By a wider margin, the third place is occupied by the former rector of Mendel University, Danuše Nerudová, who would have received 10.8% of the vote in July.
Next would be Senators Marek Hilšer (7.5%) and Pavel Fischer (6.5%), who have already unsuccessfully run for office in 2018. Josef Středula, the head of the Czech-Moravian Confederation of Trade Unions (5.4%), would come in sixth.
Young people support Nerudová and Hilšer
Andrej Babiš draws most of his support from the over-60 age group, where he would have won over 40% of the vote in the first round. People aged 18-29 would vote for him the least. They are significantly more likely to support Danuša Nerudová and Marek Hilšer.
Pavlov’s voters are across generations. Older age groups are more likely to support Josef Středula.
Turnout would reach 71% of eligible voters in July 2022. Only four out of ten voters confident they will vote in the presidential election are also certain of their first choice candidate. One-fifth of those who want to come to the polls do not yet know whom to vote for.
The survey was conducted between June 30 and July 7. A total of 1003 respondents took part in the survey.