In the latest poll conducted by the Median agency, the ANO movement remains at the forefront of political preference, securing a projected 33% of the vote in July’s parliamentary elections. Although still leading, ANO has experienced a marginal decline of 2.5 percentage points from June. The Civic Democratic Party (ODS) takes the second position with 15%, followed by the Pirate Party (Piráti) at 12%. The Social Democrats (SOCDEM) are expected to re-enter the lower house of parliament, garnering 5% of the vote.

The survey envisions a parliament comprising seven parties or movements if elections were held in July. In addition to ANO, ODS, and Piráti, the SPD would secure representation with 8% of the vote. Other parties making their presence felt would include STAN with 6.5% and TOP 09 with 5.5%.

The re-entry of the Social Democrats into the Chamber of Deputies is anticipated, reaching the 5% threshold that proved elusive in the previous parliamentary elections, marking a departure from their decades-long presence in parliament. Conversely, KDU-ČSL, which received 4% of the vote, might not secure a place in the chamber.

Despite these projections, the poll’s authors highlight the uncertainty surrounding parties that hover around the 5% threshold (STAN, TOP 09, SOCDEM, KDU-ČSL), underscoring the intricate dynamics that can influence electoral outcomes.

When considering the allocation of mandates, ANO is predicted to gain 77 seats, ODS 35, Piráti 29, SPD 19, STAN 15, while both TOP 09 and SOCDEM would secure 14 each. The present government coalition could potentially clinch 92 mandates, even in the absence of the Christian Democrats.

The poll, conducted from July 1 to 8, encompassed 1019 respondents aged 18 and above. The statistical margin of error is half a percentage point for smaller parties and up to 3.5 percentage points for the larger parties, emphasizing the need to interpret the results within this range of deviation.

Article by Prague Forum