According to the latest Median election model released today, the opposition ANO movement continues to lead in opinion polls in the country. However, the party experienced a slight decrease in support during the month of April, dropping to 31% after enjoying consistent growth over several months.

ANO, led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babis, remains ahead of its rivals, with the Civic Democrats (ODS) following behind at 15%, a figure similar to that of March. Notably, the junior governing coalition partners, the Pirates, have strengthened their position, securing 10.5% of the support and moving into third place. On the other hand, the opposition Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party experienced a decline, dropping to 8.5%. The Mayors and Independents (STAN) are currently at 7.5%, while the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL), another government party, are expected to cross the 5% threshold required to enter parliament.

Meanwhile, the fifth government party, TOP 09, which forms the Spolu coalition with ODS and KDU-CSL, would fall short of the threshold to enter the lower house in April, receiving 4.5% of the vote. Additionally, the extra-parliamentary Social Democrats (CSSD) and Communists (KSCM) would both receive 4% of the vote, thereby failing to secure parliamentary representation, according to Median’s findings.

The pollsters emphasized that several parties remained significantly below the 5% threshold, and the chances of crossing it were uncertain for those hovering around that mark. ANO and SPD witnessed a decline in their preferences compared to March, with ANO experiencing a 3.5 percentage point drop and SPD facing a decrease of 1.5 percentage points. ODS, STAN, and TOP 09 saw their support decline by half a percentage point each. Conversely, the Pirates and KDU-CSL experienced gains of 2 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively.

Median’s data revealed that the combined support for the parties in the current governing coalition (ODS, TOP 09, KDU-CSL, STAN, and Pirates) reached 43% among potential voters in April, representing a 2-point increase from March. In contrast, the combined support for ANO and SPD dropped to 39.5% in April, down from 44.5% in the previous month.

In terms of voter engagement, the poll indicated that 74% of respondents expressed their intention to participate in the elections to the Chamber of Deputies in April, with 60.5% of them confirming their commitment. The turnout in the previous general election held in October 2021 was 65.4%. However, Median noted that the share of undecided voters had increased compared to the previous poll.

The poll was conducted by surveying a sample of 1,000 individuals aged 18 and above between April 1 and May 2.

Article by Prague Forum