The price of orange juice has experienced an unprecedented surge in recent months, driven by supply shortages and adverse weather conditions in key producing regions. This surge in orange juice prices can be attributed to multiple factors, including adverse weather events in major orange-producing countries like Florida, Brazil, and Mexico. The world’s largest producers of orange juice have been grappling with unfavorable conditions, leading to a significant increase in the cost of producing this beloved beverage.

The surge in orange juice prices has been dramatic, with double-digit percentage increases this year and a staggering rise of over 300% in the past two years. On the New York Stock Exchange, the price of frozen orange juice has reached historic highs, standing at $3.90 (approximately 91 Kč) per pound, representing an 80.5% year-on-year increase. Just two years ago, in October 2021, the price was hovering around $1.20, marking a surge of more than 300%.

The primary driver of this price surge has been the lowest orange crop yield in Florida in the past 80 years. A series of adverse events, including hurricanes, unexpected frosts, and the spread of citrus greening, a bacterial infection transmitted by the Asian citrus psyllid insect, have taken a significant toll on orange production in Florida. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects Florida’s orange production to reach only 28 million boxes this year, a significant decline from over 41 million boxes in the previous year. This marks the lowest harvest since 1943 and signifies the fourth consecutive year of declining orange production in Florida.

The impact of reduced yields and citrus greening also extends to Brazil and Mexico, the world’s largest and third-largest orange juice producers. Mexico’s reduced productivity is attributed to drought and limited rainfall, while Brazil, the largest global supplier of orange juice, is expected to face a longer road to recovery. The coming year is predicted to see continued weak production levels.

Efforts to combat citrus greening through various methods have not yet yielded a successful solution. Producers are focusing on enhancing fertilization and fumigation to care for their orchards. The decrease in orange yields in the Americas may also impact the European Union, despite being the fourth-largest producer of orange juice globally. The EU’s production only covers about 15% of its demand, with the majority of orange juice imported, primarily from Brazil.

The surge in orange juice prices presents a significant challenge for consumers and the industry. As supply shortages persist, it is crucial to monitor developments closely and explore potential solutions to mitigate the impact on consumers and ensure the availability of this beloved beverage. The ongoing supply and pricing challenges may necessitate adjustments and innovations within the industry to address the situation effectively.

Article by Prague Forum