Can Lockheed Martin Supply F-35s To Czech Republic By 2028? If Not, It Could Delay A ‘Lightning’ Sale

Hans Weber
October 21, 2022

Lockheed Martin (and NATO) would surely welcome a sale but whether the F-35 maker can deliver aircraft to the Czech Air Force by the time its current lease of Saab Gripens expires is a worthy question.

The Czech government submitted a Letter of Request to the U.S. to buy F-35s to replace its leased Saab Gripen C/D fighters earlier this month. The Czech Ministry of Defense detailed the move, saying the “The Czech government has authorised the MoD to negotiate the acquisition of aircraft following the expiring lease of 14 Swedish Gripen aircraft.”

A Czech Air Force Saab Gripen C on final approach to landing. — A Czech Air Force Saab Gripen C – which the country leases from Sweden – on final approach to …

MINISTRY OF DEFENSE & ARMED FORCES, CZECH REPUBLICThe Swedish lease expires at the end of 2027, by which time the Czech Republic would like to begin taking delivery of up to 24 F-35As which would take over the air defense and NATO missions the Czech Air Force is responsible for. Among these is a joint air policing mission of Slovakian airspace with Poland.
Slovakia formally requested the air policing assistance this summer as it prepares for early decommissioning of the MiG-29s it currently operates in advance of receiving U.S.-supplied F-16s. (Those MiGs may ultimately end up in Ukrainian hands.) Slovakia does not anticipate getting the F-16s until 2025. Czech Air Force pilots and Gripens are expected to carry out joint Slovakian air policing through the end of this year.
As the U.S. government and the Czech government negotiate terms of a possible sale, the former is wrestling with the numbers of F-35s it plans to procure for the USAF, USN and USMC that could have implications for Lockheed’s ability to produce and deliver F-35As to Prague in a little over five years from now.

Lockheed Martin CEO James D. Taiclet recently told media that short term production of the F-35 will dip in 2023 thanks in part to supply chain issues arising from the recent discovery of a component in the F-35 that had been supplied from China and other headwinds. These are being resolved but he went on to suggest that future F-35 production rates could hinge on the numbers the Pentagon buys in the next few years, a proposition that looks uncertain.

“The U.S. government’s got to kind of determine what its budget priorities are at the macro level going forward,” Taiclet told Air & Space Forces magazine.

At the moment, the F-35 doesn’t appear to be foremost among them. In its 2023 budget – yet to be passed by Congress – the Air Force has only requested 33 F-35As. Meanwhile, Lockheed has set a long-term objective to produce 156 F-35s a year.

Taiclet suggested that much of near-term U.S. defense spending will be focused on nuclear modernization and nuclear deterrence platforms like the B-21 stealth bomber and LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile which replaces the Minuteman III.

That focus puts aside non-nuclear challenges he said. “The conventional threats have gotten worse instead of better. As we look forward into the next two or three or four years, that’s going to be a budget issue for the U.S. government.”

As a recent article on F-35 unit-costs pointed out, DoD’s planned agreement for upcoming F-35 production Lots 15-17 encompasses about 375 aircraft. That’s over 100 fewer airplanes than the 2019 contract for Lots 12-14 procured. The diminished quantity could induce Lockheed to maximize business efficiency by slowing the production schedule for the next few years.

Lockheed Martin’s F-35 production line in Fort Worth, TX as seen from a central crane monorail. …

So could uncertainty about U.S. F-35 demand in light of the pending Block 4 upgrade for the airplane which may not begin until around 2025 and may extend to 2029. A decision on whether or not to proceed with the XA100 engine GE is developing for the F-35 as part of the Air Force’s Adaptive Engine Transition Program or an upgraded version of Pratt & Whitney’s F135 could also impact the price per aircraft, further influencing U.S. demand.

That, in turn, could impact deliveries to the Czech Republic, especially given done-deals with other European customers including Poland and Switzerland Aerodynamic Advisory’s Richard Aboulafia says.

“It really depends on how flexible other customers can be with their delivery schedule. But given the geopolitics and requirements behind all the orders, very few are going to be flexible, and Lockheed is unlikely to get much beyond 156 in 2027.”

Conversely, the USAF may be the “crumple zone” for F-35 production Aboulafia asserts. “If they can defer a few deliveries, then yes, the Czechs can get a few.”

But if the Air Force defers many deliveries Lockheed could, as noted, simply throttle-back production to maintain cost control. That might leave Prague in a bind, possibly forced to sign a new lease for Gripens with Sweden or turn to another fighter supplier.

Lockheed Martin chose to remain mum on a query about its ability to deliver F-35s to the Czech Republic by the start of 2028. But it’s a question that the Czech MoD and the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (the State Department organization which handles foreign military sales) are eager to get an answer to as well.

**Source**

Lockheed Martin's F-35 production line in as seen from a central crane monorail. — A Czech Air Force Saab Gripen C – which the country leases from Sweden – on final approach to …

MINISTRY OF DEFENSE & ARMED FORCES, CZECH REPUBLICThe Swedish lease expires at the end of 2027, by which time the Czech Republic would like to begin taking delivery of up to 24 F-35As which would take over the air defense and NATO missions the Czech Air Force is responsible for. Among these is a joint air policing mission of Slovakian airspace with Poland.
Slovakia formally requested the air policing assistance this summer as it prepares for early decommissioning of the MiG-29s it currently operates in advance of receiving U.S.-supplied F-16s. (Those MiGs may ultimately end up in Ukrainian hands.) Slovakia does not anticipate getting the F-16s until 2025. Czech Air Force pilots and Gripens are expected to carry out joint Slovakian air policing through the end of this year.
As the U.S. government and the Czech government negotiate terms of a possible sale, the former is wrestling with the numbers of F-35s it plans to procure for the USAF, USN and USMC that could have implications for Lockheed’s ability to produce and deliver F-35As to Prague in a little over five years from now.

Lockheed Martin CEO James D. Taiclet recently told media that short term production of the F-35 will dip in 2023 thanks in part to supply chain issues arising from the recent discovery of a component in the F-35 that had been supplied from China and other headwinds. These are being resolved but he went on to suggest that future F-35 production rates could hinge on the numbers the Pentagon buys in the next few years, a proposition that looks uncertain.

“The U.S. government’s got to kind of determine what its budget priorities are at the macro level going forward,” Taiclet told Air & Space Forces magazine.

At the moment, the F-35 doesn’t appear to be foremost among them. In its 2023 budget – yet to be passed by Congress – the Air Force has only requested 33 F-35As. Meanwhile, Lockheed has set a long-term objective to produce 156 F-35s a year.

Taiclet suggested that much of near-term U.S. defense spending will be focused on nuclear modernization and nuclear deterrence platforms like the B-21 stealth bomber and LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile which replaces the Minuteman III.

That focus puts aside non-nuclear challenges he said. “The conventional threats have gotten worse instead of better. As we look forward into the next two or three or four years, that’s going to be a budget issue for the U.S. government.”

As a recent article on F-35 unit-costs pointed out, DoD’s planned agreement for upcoming F-35 production Lots 15-17 encompasses about 375 aircraft. That’s over 100 fewer airplanes than the 2019 contract for Lots 12-14 procured. The diminished quantity could induce Lockheed to maximize business efficiency by slowing the production schedule for the next few years.

Lockheed Martin’s F-35 production line in Fort Worth, TX as seen from a central crane monorail. …

So could uncertainty about U.S. F-35 demand in light of the pending Block 4 upgrade for the airplane which may not begin until around 2025 and may extend to 2029. A decision on whether or not to proceed with the XA100 engine GE is developing for the F-35 as part of the Air Force’s Adaptive Engine Transition Program or an upgraded version of Pratt & Whitney’s F135 could also impact the price per aircraft, further influencing U.S. demand.

That, in turn, could impact deliveries to the Czech Republic, especially given done-deals with other European customers including Poland and Switzerland Aerodynamic Advisory’s Richard Aboulafia says.

“It really depends on how flexible other customers can be with their delivery schedule. But given the geopolitics and requirements behind all the orders, very few are going to be flexible, and Lockheed is unlikely to get much beyond 156 in 2027.”

Conversely, the USAF may be the “crumple zone” for F-35 production Aboulafia asserts. “If they can defer a few deliveries, then yes, the Czechs can get a few.”

But if the Air Force defers many deliveries Lockheed could, as noted, simply throttle-back production to maintain cost control. That might leave Prague in a bind, possibly forced to sign a new lease for Gripens with Sweden or turn to another fighter supplier.

Lockheed Martin chose to remain mum on a query about its ability to deliver F-35s to the Czech Republic by the start of 2028. But it’s a question that the Czech MoD and the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (the State Department organization which handles foreign military sales) are eager to get an answer to as well.

**Source**

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