Life expectancy in the Czech Republic is on the path to recovery, with preliminary data indicating a positive trend after a dip during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to Michaela Nemeckova, a demographer at the Czech Statistical Office (CSU), projections suggest that life expectancy could reach 77 years for men and 83 years for women in the current year, surpassing pre-pandemic records from 2019. Nemeckova presented this encouraging information during a recent press conference.

The CSU has also published a comprehensive demographic development projection extending until 2101. This forecast envisions a remarkable extension of life expectancy in the Czech Republic, anticipating an increase of nearly 12.5 years for men and over 9.5 years for women by the end of the century.

The trajectory of life expectancy in the country faced a setback during the COVID-19 pandemic, with mortality rates rising in the initial stages of the epidemic. In 2019, life expectancy stood at 76.3 years for men and 82.1 years for women, but these figures dipped by 1 year for men and 0.7 years for women in 2020, the first year of the pandemic. In the subsequent year, life expectancy further decreased to 74.1 years for men and 80.5 years for women. However, the most recent data suggests a reversal of this trend, bringing the figures back to 2018 levels.

Nemeckova emphasized that the CSU’s latest projection does not foresee a long-term impact of the coronavirus epidemic on life expectancy. The projection considers three scenarios: a low, pessimistic one, a medium one deemed most likely, and the highest optimistic scenario.

Under the medium scenario, the projection indicates that by mid-century, life expectancy could extend by over five years for men, reaching 82.2 years, and by approximately four years for women, reaching 87.1 years. Nemeckova highlighted that some developed European countries already witness such figures, indicating a convergence with the developed world.

Looking further into the future, the end-of-century projection suggests that life expectancy in the Czech Republic could soar to 89.4 years for men and 92.6 years for women. The anticipated longer lives are attributed primarily to a reduction in mortality rates among older age groups.

As the country grapples with an ageing population and increased life expectancy, economists and experts stress the necessity of reforms to sustain the pension system. The proposed pension amendment involves an annual recalculation of retirement age for those in their fifties, aligning it with evolving life expectancy trends. This proactive approach aims to manage the challenges posed by an ageing society and ensure the sustainability of the pension system.

Article by Prague Forum